I think my answer would be "depends on your definition of 'dropout'".
|Photo By: Ian Muttoo http://farm2.staticflickr.com/1430/5109543974_52f6bb1430_b.jpg|
Looking into the participants' perspective of MOOCs we have now interviewed 11 MOOC participants. There are some focus groups planned with a variety of groups including school students (16-18 year olds) known to have taken a MOOC.
Our paper on MOOC dropout that will be presented at EMOOCs2014 is now ready to be submitted for the proceedings and I am working on the presentation. There is so much to understand about MOOCs. If you want to know more about our research click here.